Where are all the climate ambulance-chasers? Well, you won’t find them in the Atlantic. 

So far in 2026, Atlantic hurricane activity has been unusually quiet. Currently, the Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index is only at 3.1, about 85% below the 1991–2020 climatological normal for this point in the season.

Source: Colorado State University

The unusual calmness has been due to a combination of atmospheric and ocean conditions, experts say.

Strong El Niño event

The warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have driven strong vertical wind shear across the Caribbean and Atlantic Basin, disrupting the vertical structure of developing tropical disturbances, thus hindering the development of hurricanes.

Dry air and Saharan dust

Moreover, continuous plumes of dry, dusty air blowing off the African coast (the Saharan Air Layer) have “dried out” the atmosphere in the region. Tropical storms require moist air to fuel the hurricane development.

Suppressed African easterly waves

The atmospheric disturbances rolling off western Africa that act as the “seeds” for major Atlantic hurricanes have been weaker and less frequent than usual.

Lack of deep warm water

Sea surface temperatures on the very surface are hovering near average across parts of the Atlantic, but there is a lack of deep ocean heat content in areas like the Gulf of Mexico. The developing storms draw up the cooler water from beneath and so act to stall tropical storm growth.

While conditions remain hostile for major storm development, we are now at peak season and sudden shifts can occur.

Not surprisingly, there are lots of natural reasons explaining why dramatic storms aren’t materializing. But when ther storms do show up, the natural reasons disappear and it all gets blamed on human GHG.