VANCOUVER— In 2025, under Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government, federal gross debt is expected to hit its highest point in Canadian history at $2.35 trillion (inflation adjusted), finds a new study released today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.

“The significant increase in federal debt in recent years means more tax dollars will go towards paying interest and future generations are on the hook for today’s spending,” said Jake Fuss, Director of Fiscal Studies with the Fraser Institute and author of Examining Federal Debt in Canada by Prime Ministers Since Confederation, 2025.

The study tracks the debt legacies of every Canadian prime minister since Confederation—how much their governments increased or decreased total federal debt (which includes all federal financial liabilities) during their time in office, after accounting for both inflation and population changes.

According to the study, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government is projected to increase per-person federal debt by 4.2 percent in 2025, increasing federal debt per Canadian to $56,432 (inflation adjusted), the second highest amount in Canadian history (surpassed only by 2021).

Compare that to other prime ministers who also did not experience a war or recession: only Mackenzie Bowell (4.7 per cent) increased per-person debt more during its tenure than Carney is projected to in his first year. For comparison, Prime Minister Abbot also did not experience a war or recession during his tenure and per-person debt increased by 0.7 per cent. Four other prime ministerial tenures (Joe Clark, Lester Pearson, Paul Martin, and John Macdonald’s first tenure) saw declining per-person debt during a period when there were no world wars or recessions.

Among all governments, that of Prime Minister Robert Borden, who governed during the First World War and four years of economic downturn, increased per-person debt levels the most (188.1 per cent). Louis St. Laurent’s lowered the federal per-person debt the most (34.3 per cent), even though his tenure included two recessions.

“The federal government should pay more attention to its debt accumulation, particularly as today’s deficits represent tomorrow’s taxes,” Fuss said.

Fraser Institute——Bio and Archives

The Fraser Institute is an independent Canadian public policy research and educational organization with offices in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montreal and ties to a global network of 86 think-tanks. Its mission is to measure, study, and communicate the impact of competitive markets and government intervention on the welfare of individuals. To protect the Institute’s independence, it does not accept grants from governments or contracts for research. Visit fraserinstitute.org.

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