I've referred to this phenomenon in a few recent posts, but I think it deserves to be pointed out on its own terms: Democrats are not as far ahead in pre-midterm polls as you would expect, especially given President Trump's atrocious poll numbers, the unpopularity of the Iran war, and the generally sour mood of the country. 

Don't get me wrong: Democrats are measurably ahead, for what that's worth given the unreliability of polling these days. Currently, on the RealClearPolitics average of polls, the Democrats are up by 4.7%, partially thanks to a couple of outliers that put them up by 6 or 7. 

But as you can see, most polls give Democrats a 2-4-point edge, which is hardly overwhelming, especially given Republicans' advantages in the distribution of Congressional seats. Deep blue areas have substantial "overvotes," meaning a Congressional candidate can win the seat by 40-50 points, so their average support levels in more competitive areas are much lower than the average would suggest. Republicans can win the majority of seats even in cases where the overall popular vote goes against them, due to the fact that elections are district-by-district. 

A win by 1% is just as good as a win by 80%, after all. Most estimates suggest that Democrats need a +3 to +4 edge in overall votes nationwide to pick up enough House seats to secure a slim majority. 

So they are still looking quite viable, especially since polling shows their most dedicated voters are hyped. But compared to prior midterm elections, their edge looks quite weak. 

In 2018, the Democrats were up by double the margin they are now—8.4% according to RCP —and, objectively speaking, the country was doing pretty well. At about this time in the cycle in 2010, the Republicans were up by 8 or 9, although by election day the generic polling was only about +2. The actual vote was closer to +7 for Republicans, as they generally, but not always, outperformed the polls. 

Of course, ballot harvesting and mail-in ballots change the turnout equation by quite a bit, and these are far more prevalent than before 2020, suggesting that in Blue areas Democratic turnout will be higher, but mostly that just boosts the overvote in Congressional races. 

It's impossible to draw definitive conclusions about how all the variables will play out in this particular election, but the Democrats should be worried about the implications for national and statewide elections in the long term. 

At least as I read the data, this suggests that Democrats are being hampered by brand destruction and the number of extremist candidates, as well as the repulsion to socialism. 

Democrats have become much more favorable to socialism, but overall it is quite unpopular with the public. CNN shows a dramatic shift in Democratic Party voters in how they view socialism and capitalism, and this has had the effect of dividing the Democratic Party and reminding Republicans of what the alternative is. 

CNN poll shows rising favorability toward socialism among Democrats, while support for capitalism declines.
pic.twitter.com/JdKQOlgtHM

I still think it is slightly more likely than not that Democrats take the House, but their prospects for a sweeping victory look pretty dim at the moment. It might be that Democrats are so much more excited about voting than Republicans that they overcome the relatively poor generic numbers, so making predictions is dangerous, but these numbers should give Republicans some comfort. 

Not much, but some. 

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