A poll released by Let’s Go Washington indicates majority support among likely Washington voters for Initiative 638, a ballot measure that would prohibit students defined as biologically male from competing in certain K-12 athletic activities designated for female students.

The survey of 7,500 likely voters found 56 percent would vote yes, 24 percent would vote no, and 22 percent were undecided. Support crossed party lines, as 73 percent of Republican respondents, 48 percent of Democratic respondents, and 52 percent of independents expressed support the measure.

Initiative 638 appears on the November 3, 2026, ballot as an indirect initiated state statute. It would require school districts and nonprofit organizations regulating interscholastic activities to prohibit biologically male students from competing with or against female students in sports that maintain separate classifications for male and female participants.

Students seeking to participate in female-designated athletic activities would need to submit documentation from a healthcare provider verifying biological sex, based on reproductive anatomy, genetic makeup, or normal endogenously produced testosterone levels. The measure would permit coed activities open to all students.

POLL: Do You Believe Transgenderism Is A Mental Illness?

🇺🇸 Poll shows 56% of Washington likely voters support Initiative 638 banning transgender athletes from girls' K-12 sports. 🚫 https://t.co/uLuHf2KYbc

— Reason in Politics (@ReasonNPolitics) October 9, 2026

Public discussion has referenced specific cases in Washington. This includes a transgender track athlete previously won a state title in the 400 meters, and a high school cross-country runner who competed on the boys’ team earlier in the season later competed on the girls’ team and recorded a varsity victory.

Under current Washington Interscholastic Activities Association policy, students may participate consistent with their gender identity or the gender most consistently expressed. State estimates place the number of transgender athletes at five to ten among more than 200,000 student competitors.

If approved, the measure would make Washington the first Democrat-controlled state to enact such a restriction through direct voter action. As of 2026, 27 other states currently maintain laws limiting participation in female K-12 sports categories on the basis of biological sex.

The initiative text specifies verification methods but does not mandate particular examinations or tests beyond the documentation requirement. Proponents state that verification could rely on information already collected during routine sports physicals. The Northwest Progressive Institute, which opposes the measure, has commissioned its own polling but has not released results.

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