Polish officials and allied partners have characterized the incident as a deliberate move by Russia, noting that the UAVs entered Poland from Belarus before penetrating deeper into its territory. OSINT findings, along with SIM cards from Polish and Lithuanian operators discovered in the drones, indicate a premeditated operation rather than any disruption of flight paths by Ukrainian electronic warfare.
...
On the night of September 10, 2025, at least 19 Russian drones breached Polish airspace, many entering from Belarus. Poland's military called the incident «an act of aggression,» prompting Prime Minister Donald Tusk to convene an emergency government meeting. It was also the first time NATO aircraft shot down drones over alliance territory since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, though the alliance has stopped short of classifying the strike as an attack.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said Russia deliberately targeted Poland and dismissed Kremlin denials as lies. «Last night, Poland's airspace was breached 19 times by drones manufactured in Russia. The assessment of Polish and NATO air forces is that they did not veer off course, but were deliberately targeted,» Sikorski said.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told the Bundestag that Russian drones were «clearly launched intentionally» toward Polish territory, adding there was no reason to believe the incursion resulted from a navigational error.

OSINT analysts echoed that assessment. Polish defense analyst Jarosław Wolski argued that Russia deliberately routed Shahed drones through Polish territory.

«Eyewitness reports indicate a clearly plotted path for the Russian drones. This appears not to be a malfunction, coincidence, or the result of electronic warfare, but rather deliberate routing by Russia to bypass Ukrainian air defenses by flying over our territory,» Wolski said.