Existing transboundary water agreements must be revised to remain effective as climate change increasingly undermines their original foundations.

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Most transboundary water agreements were originally negotiated on the basis of stable, predictable river flows and water availability. However, climate change now undermines these foundational assumptions, making revision of these agreements necessary.

In many transboundary basins, climate change is increasing hydrological uncertainty rather than simply reducing water availability. This creates new risks for water allocation arrangements based on fixed water quantities. Agreements that allocate specific volumes may become difficult to implement when river flows decline significantly or fluctuate unpredictably.

As a result, modern transboundary water governance is shifting from water-sharing to benefit-sharing, from rigid allocation rules to adaptive management, and from sectoral approaches to integrated WEFE (Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem) Nexus frameworks. Flexible agreements that include joint monitoring systems, data sharing, drought management plans, climate risk assessments, and periodic review mechanisms are becoming increasingly important.

Climate change also creates opportunities for greater regional cooperation. Joint reservoir operation, coordinated flood management, renewable energy integration, ecosystem protection, and climate adaptation projects can help riparian countries increase resilience while reducing the risk of conflict.

The Emerging Strategic Importance of Water

Factors such as the declining influence of international institutions, mounting pressures on water resources, the impact of climate change, and the strengthening nexus between water, energy, food, and environmental security have led countries sharing transboundary water basins to increasingly view water through the lens of national security policy. Consequently, there have been no promising developments in using water to foster peace and stability, particularly in regions facing physical water scarcity. This is because more than half of the 310 transboundary river basins lack any cooperative framework agreement. According to the Global Water Partnership, transboundary basins make up about 60 percent of the world’s freshwater resources, with 153 out of 192 countries sharing 310 rivers and lakes and 592 aquifers that provide water for 2.8 billion people. A total of 153 countries worldwide share transboundary water resources. 

However, positive examples do exist. The cooperative efforts on the Rhine River among European countries , on the Senegal River in West Africa, the Kambarata HPP-1 Agreement among riparian states in Central Asia, and the Türkiye-Irak Water Framework Agreement have shown that it is possible to strengthen cooperation and achieve benefits for all riparian states, even under challenging circumstances. These cases demonstrate that with adequate political will and institutional support, transboundary water agreements can be adapted and made more resilient in the face of growing pressures.

Transboundary Water Management within the Sustainable Development Goals

Within the Sustainable Development Goals, Target 6.5 entails implementing “integrated water resources management at all levels, including through transboundary cooperation as appropriate. Target 6.5.2 focuses on the presence of operational cooperation mechanisms among countries sharing transboundary water basins and other forms of collaboration. According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, earlier progress reports set a global baseline for measuring how many transboundary rivers, lakes, and aquifers are governed by such operational arrangements. Across much of the world, transboundary waters are not yet managed under conditions of full cooperation.

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Transboundary Water Governance is Under Threat

To maintain effective transboundary water governance under climate change, existing agreements must be updated to address greater hydrological unpredictability and the increased risks to implementation. The UNECE Report titled “Handbook on Water Allocation in a Transboundary Context” and the Summary Handbook on Water Allocation in a Transboundary Context (2023) main messages are critical for achieving climate-resilient governance.

• To respond to changing conditions, including but not limited to climate variability and change, transboundary water allocation agreements and other arrangements should be adaptable. 
• New transboundary water allocation agreements and other arrangements need to be designed to be adaptable in the medium and long-term to changing hydrological, climatic, and other related factors (socioeconomic, geographical, cultural, etc.).
• Existing water allocation agreements and other arrangements, as well as adopted subsidiary instruments, may need to be revised to respond to changing conditions. 
• Climate change must be approached as a cross-cutting challenge to effective allocation. It is a potential risk multiplier that may necessitate adjustments to existing arrangements and careful drafting of any new transboundary water allocation agreements.
• Impacts of climate change on future demands and flows should also be anticipated and used to inform the negotiation of allocation arrangements. Transboundary allocation arrangements need to factor in the increased uncertainty and inter- and intra-annual variability of precipitation and runoff to cope with the increasing frequency and severity of drought and flood events. 

How to Achieve Climate-resilient Transboundary Water Governance

To achieve climate-resilient transboundary water governance, transboundary water management must become more flexible, adaptive, data-driven, cooperative, and climate-resilient, based on the WEFE Nexus. Adaptive water management is about continuously improving decisions in the face of changing and uncertain conditions.

WEFE Nexus matters in transboundary basins. Because the Nexus approach transforms competition into cooperation. Therefore, in the 21st century, adaptive water management is becoming the fundamental management model for WEFE Nexus and transboundary water cooperation approaches.

Climate change increases interdependence among water, energy, food, and ecosystems. Transboundary water management requires integrated solutions.WEFE Nexus provides a framework for cooperation and benefit sharing.

Policy Recommendations: Priorities for Immediate Action

For policymakers seeking to respond effectively to the challenges of climate change in transboundary water management, the following recommendations are prioritized to guide efforts and resources.

1. Strengthen basin-wide effective institutions. This is the foundational step upon which all other efforts depend. Strong, inclusive institutions are essential for coordinating actions, building trust, and ensuring the long-term effectiveness of all transboundary governance measures.
2. Integrate climate adaptation into basin planning. Urgent adjustment of existing plans to incorporate climate resilience will help safeguard water security and ecosystem stability in the face of increasing unpredictability.
3. Improve transboundary data sharing. Reliable, up-to-date data is critical for adaptive management, informed negotiation, and evidence-based decision making among riparian states.
4. Develop WEFE-oriented planning tools. Tools that integrate water, energy, food, and ecosystem considerations enable more comprehensive, adaptive management and facilitate benefit-sharing.
5. Establish benefit-sharing mechanisms. Creating frameworks for sharing the benefits arising from cooperation can foster stability and incentivize joint action.
6. Promote regional food-electricity markets. Strengthening regional trade in these areas can build interdependence and increase the resilience of all parties to climate shocks.

Ensuring future water security requires a paradigm shift from managing average conditions to managing extremes and uncertainties. Revising transboundary water agreements is central to this shift: future management must focus on sharing benefits, not just water, to remain effective amidst climate change. Policymakers can begin this transition by initiating immediate reviews of current agreements in light of new climate data, organizing stakeholder dialogues at the basin level, and establishing working groups to recommend specific adaptive measures. Such actions can translate this paradigm shift into concrete progress toward more resilient, cooperative water governance.

It is also worth mentioning that the future success of transboundary water agreements and SDG Goals will depend not only on legal commitments but also on their ability to adapt to changing climatic conditions. Agreements that incorporate flexibility, scientific cooperation, and climate resilience measures are likely to be more sustainable and effective in the 21st century.

Climate change is transforming transboundary water management from a question of allocating water under certainty to managing shared risks and opportunities under uncertainty.

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Dursun Yıldız (MSc.) is a hydropolitics specialist and serves as the Director of the Hydropolitics Association in Ankara, Türkiye. He is a civil engineer and previously served as Deputy Director at the State Hydraulic Works in Türkiye. His academic background includes a postgraduate course in hydroinformatics at IHE Delft, technical training at the United States Bureau of Reclamation, and a master’s degree in Hydropolitics from Hacettepe University, Türkiye.

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