The United States–Israel attack on Iran is being justified by many Western countries as logical and necessary. However, in this attack, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, along with several members of his family and many others, lost their lives. Such an act cannot be justified in any way. This moment reflects the breakdown of the global legal order and the strengthening of American imperial ambitions. Since Donald Trump became President of the United States, his administration has weakened global sovereignty and rendered several regulatory institutions of the world, including the United Nations, increasingly ineffective.

After attacking Venezuela and arresting its President Nicolás Maduro, bringing him to the United States, the killing of Khamenei and his family suggests that the world may once again be drifting toward a lawless order. Power now appears to be emerging from the barrel of a gun. The sovereignty of smaller nations is under threat. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, along with American attacks on Venezuela and Iran, signals that countries facing geopolitical tensions—such as Taiwan—may confront serious challenges to their survival in the future.

Global supply chains have already been disrupted, and protectionist policies such as increased import tariffs introduced by Trump have further destabilized the world economy. Employment opportunities have declined, and people are facing severe inflation. The consequences of the United States–Israel attack on Iran will likely be felt not only in the Middle East but also across Western nations. Ultimately, it is humanity that will bear the true cost of this conflict.

India, too, will inevitably face the consequences of the Iran–United States confrontation in the coming years. The situation may create new challenges for the country. Another complication for India is that this attack occurred soon after the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Israel, creating uncertainty in India’s Middle East foreign policy. This could directly affect India’s economy. The supply of crude oil to India through the Strait of Hormuz could be disrupted.

Moreover, more than nine million Indians working in Middle Eastern countries may be directly or indirectly affected, and the remittances they send back to India could decline. Nearly half of India’s imported crude oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Due to pressure from the United States regarding the purchase of Russian oil, India’s dependence on this route has increased. If tensions escalate in the region, it will directly affect crude oil prices in India. In the future, Indian consumers may have to face significantly higher fuel prices.

Additionally, oil supplies through the Red Sea route could also be affected due to threats from Iran-backed Houthi movement rebels. On the diplomatic front as well, India may face an uncomfortable situation. India currently claims leadership among developing nations and is also holding the presidency of BRICS. Iran became a member of this group last year. Under such circumstances, the question arises: is India in a position to openly oppose this attack? Given its historical ties with Iran, can India distance itself from the United States?

Following what many describe as an illegal Israeli–American war against Iran without provocation, the entire West Asian region has descended into chaos. When President Donald Trump initiated the conflict with an attack that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, other leaders, and at least 160 schoolchildren, he called upon the Iranian people to overthrow the Islamic Republic and seize control of state institutions. However, nothing of that sort occurred.

Iran responded by targeting American bases, assets, and embassies across the Persian Gulf, as well as Israeli positions. Satellite-image analysis indicates that Iran attacked communication and radar systems at seven American military bases. The Lebanese armed organization Hezbollah also entered the conflict by launching rocket attacks on northern Israel. In Iraq, Iran-backed militias targeted American assets in Erbil and other locations. According to the U.S. Department of Defense, at least six soldiers were killed in “friendly fire” in Kuwait, and three fighter aircraft were destroyed.

On March 4, the United States expanded the conflict into the Indian Ocean by targeting the Iranian warship IRIS Dena with a torpedo near the coast of Sri Lanka. At least 83 crew members were killed in the attack. The warship had been present in the region to attend an international naval fleet review event in Visakhapatnam just a week earlier. If Trump and his ally Benjamin Netanyahu assumed that killing Khamenei would collapse Iran’s government, the opposite appears to have happened—the event has ignited a broader regional war.

There are currently no clear signs that either side is willing to step back. Iran’s security chief Ali Larijani has rejected negotiations with the United States. American media reports suggest that Washington is considering arming Kurdish militias in northwestern Iran, a move that could provoke internal instability. Such a step could prove extremely dangerous.

Trump appears to have initiated the war without a clear exit strategy. Since there are no signs of major divisions within the Iranian state or its institutions, the United States may consider broader bombing campaigns or attempts to fuel civil conflict within Iran. Recently, Washington even promised to “liberate” Iran from its religious leadership. However, if the war continues for a long time, Trump may face domestic opposition, as some of his far-right supporters have begun describing the conflict as “Israel’s war.”

From India’s perspective, rising oil and gas prices will place a heavy burden on the economy. A broader regional war could also endanger the economic and physical security of millions of Indians living in the region. Initially, New Delhi did not strongly condemn the assassination of Khamenei, but it may now need to take a firmer stand against the war and cooperate with other global powers to end the conflict. India must also firmly oppose any attempt by the United States to extend this conflict into regions close to India.

Although the United States and Israel may have imposed this war on Iran to maintain global dominance and pursue imperial ambitions, its consequences will be felt worldwide. The conflict has pushed the entire West Asian region into a serious crisis. Iran, standing on the brink of destruction, has carried out retaliatory attacks on commercial and industrial institutions in neighboring countries, triggering economic instability across the Middle East.

Millions of jobs are now at risk. For the millions of Indian workers in the region, this situation could be extremely serious. Iran’s retaliatory actions and rising tensions in West Asia have caused significant economic disruption. Increased threats to global shipping routes have created a severe crisis in the energy market.

Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted the transportation of crude oil and natural gas. This maritime route alone accounts for nearly one-fifth of the global oil supply. However, in the current wartime environment, shipping insurance companies have withdrawn war-risk coverage. As a result, the cost of transporting petroleum and other goods has risen sharply. Many ships have changed their routes, while some shipping companies have temporarily suspended services.

The immediate consequence has been a sharp rise in crude oil prices. Prices of Brent Crude have also increased unexpectedly. Rising oil prices will inevitably intensify inflationary pressure across the global economy. As a result, developing and poorer nations are likely to face deeper economic crises.

At the same time, governments of developing countries will face major challenges in mobilizing financial resources for development programs. Central banks in these nations will struggle to balance inflation control with economic growth. Industries dependent on petroleum and its derivatives—such as transportation, chemicals, and plastics—are already facing rising costs. Their profits may decline, and investment could slow down.

Delays in supply may further worsen global supply chain disruptions. It is well known that India imports around eighty percent of its crude oil requirements. Nearly forty percent of this import comes from West Asia. In the current crisis, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and rising geopolitical risks could significantly increase India’s oil import bill. This may also widen the country’s fiscal deficit.

Even a ten-dollar increase in crude oil prices per barrel could substantially raise import costs. Trade routes toward the Gulf region are currently facing extremely complex conditions. Exports of electronics and other goods that rely on the shipping network passing through Hormuz could face delays, increasing costs and creating the risk of lost opportunities.

Although the Indian government is currently expressing confidence, prolonged conflict in West Asia could significantly intensify economic challenges. Addressing this crisis will require urgent policy measures. The need of the hour is to diversify energy sources and implement strong economic safeguards to protect against geopolitical instability.

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